The Frontrunners

I've already covered the lightweights, so here are the favorites:

Newt Gingrich- He's a familiar face in unfamiliar times. I think he's going to pick up Palin supporters as her support drops. He's very smart and very capable. He will perform well in debates and has a record of fighting democrats. However due to that, he hurts his bi-partisan appeal and people know, if Gingrich is in the White House it will be politics as usual. He will be in the race until the end but ultimately will hope to get a VP spot, which is not that unlikely. Chances of winning: 11%

Tim Pawlenty- Pawlenty has recently become very popular, and people consider him a strong candidate in 2012. He speaks like a fair-minded conservative and comes from an important state in Minnesota, that usually swings democrat. He's going to be a tough out and could rob Palin and Huckabee of votes, but likely will not have enough support to win. He's another who could easily find himself in a VP spot and possibly another run in 2016. Chances of Winning: 15%

Mitt Romney- Easily could be considered the most popular man in the race. It's basically a wash between him and Mike Huckabee. Mitt has performed well in the polls. Mitt's done a little better than Mike at fundraising (a lot better, actually) but lacks the popularity and grassroots support Mike has. Mitt is probably considered the frontrunner right now, but I think he's too generic a candidate to win. He wins if Jindal, Huckabee and Palin perform badly and it falls to him. But if one can take this race by the reigns, he has no chance. Chances of Winning: 25%

Mike Huckabee- He's splitting time atop the 2012 polls with Mitt Romney, but not among the favorables. He's easily the most popular candidate. Right now, it's a toss up to who you would consider the "favorite" in the 2012 race. Although he has popularity and grassroots support (such as Huck's Army), he lacks in fundraising. His TV show has been very good for him, spreading his name among conservatives. His recent hosting of the O Reilly Factor has really helped as well. Right now, I think you have to consider it a "Romney-lean" as to who the frontrunner is for the sole reason that he can raise money. But if you consider that Mike looks very good in the all important Iowa caucus, he could have momentum (and money) swing his way right off the bat. Chances of Winning: 25%

One thing is clear: it's going to be a dog fight in the GOP field in 2012. With many fresh faces and many familiar ones, anyone could come out and win in this field. Although we have 2 men leading the pack now, there are many popular men (and women) in the middle and bottom of the pack who could make some serious noise....and possibly even win.

The Competition

On a rather slow day in news (just a Supreme Court vote, two prominent baseball players testing positive  for steroids and a keg at the White House), I'm going to take a creative look at the GOP field for 2012, including Mike and his competition. They come in ascending order of best chance of winning. 

The Lightweights (Yes Sarah Palin is a lightweight) And let's be clear, it's not that these candidates have no chance of winning, just that they aren't in the front of the pack and that, as of now, I don't see them competing seriously in 2012. However, anything can happen in the world of politics. 

Jeb Bush- Surely Republicans won't elect another Bush, right? Maybe not. It's likely without his brother being extremely unpopular he would be the frontrunner. He's smart and very popular in his home state of Florida. Not to mention a candidate essentially being guaranteed Florida would be very hard to beat. So far, "Dubya's" little brother has performed abysmal in the polls. As in under 5%. That being said, don't be surprised at all if those numbers take a steep incline as we climb closer to 2012. However, I think his brother's tarnished name will be too much to overcome. Though his electoral math will look better than his nationwide polling, he won't have enough support to make a serious run at the office. Although don't be surprised if a more serious run comes in 2016. Chances of winning: 3%

Charlie Crist- Another Republican from Florida, he's becoming a champion of bi-partisanism. He is very popular among moderates and again, from a great state for being elected. Although I think he could have a nice following, I'd be surprised if his numbers ever reached double digits. Not to mention, he still has to overcome the conservative Marco Rubio for the Florida Senate seat, which some polls have Rubio neck and neck. If he does beat Rubio, he might have enough support to get into the debate of GOP 2012 Candidates. If not, game over. Chances of winning: 5%

Bobby Jindal- Although relatively unknown now, he could be a household name by 2012. If an unknown were to come out and win, I think Jindal is it. He's popular among conservatives and has appeal to moderates. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes above Sarah Palin. (in fact, I might be surprised if he doesn't). Right now, Jindal's biggest problem is his recognition. If he can get his name out, he could be a force. Chances of Winning: 10%

Sarah Palin- After much debate, I decided to put Palin below Pawlenty and Gingrich. Although I've always liked her appeal and her fair-mindedness, she is as unpopular as she is popular. Almost everyone has made their minds up about her, and it's more bad than good. She was very popular among Conservatives, but that took a shot with her new "bi-partisan kick" and her promise to campaign for democrats. She's a very interesting political figure, but will not be strong enough to compete in 2012. Chances of Winning: 14%