The Frontrunners

I've already covered the lightweights, so here are the favorites:

Newt Gingrich- He's a familiar face in unfamiliar times. I think he's going to pick up Palin supporters as her support drops. He's very smart and very capable. He will perform well in debates and has a record of fighting democrats. However due to that, he hurts his bi-partisan appeal and people know, if Gingrich is in the White House it will be politics as usual. He will be in the race until the end but ultimately will hope to get a VP spot, which is not that unlikely. Chances of winning: 11%

Tim Pawlenty- Pawlenty has recently become very popular, and people consider him a strong candidate in 2012. He speaks like a fair-minded conservative and comes from an important state in Minnesota, that usually swings democrat. He's going to be a tough out and could rob Palin and Huckabee of votes, but likely will not have enough support to win. He's another who could easily find himself in a VP spot and possibly another run in 2016. Chances of Winning: 15%

Mitt Romney- Easily could be considered the most popular man in the race. It's basically a wash between him and Mike Huckabee. Mitt has performed well in the polls. Mitt's done a little better than Mike at fundraising (a lot better, actually) but lacks the popularity and grassroots support Mike has. Mitt is probably considered the frontrunner right now, but I think he's too generic a candidate to win. He wins if Jindal, Huckabee and Palin perform badly and it falls to him. But if one can take this race by the reigns, he has no chance. Chances of Winning: 25%

Mike Huckabee- He's splitting time atop the 2012 polls with Mitt Romney, but not among the favorables. He's easily the most popular candidate. Right now, it's a toss up to who you would consider the "favorite" in the 2012 race. Although he has popularity and grassroots support (such as Huck's Army), he lacks in fundraising. His TV show has been very good for him, spreading his name among conservatives. His recent hosting of the O Reilly Factor has really helped as well. Right now, I think you have to consider it a "Romney-lean" as to who the frontrunner is for the sole reason that he can raise money. But if you consider that Mike looks very good in the all important Iowa caucus, he could have momentum (and money) swing his way right off the bat. Chances of Winning: 25%

One thing is clear: it's going to be a dog fight in the GOP field in 2012. With many fresh faces and many familiar ones, anyone could come out and win in this field. Although we have 2 men leading the pack now, there are many popular men (and women) in the middle and bottom of the pack who could make some serious noise....and possibly even win.

What can we expect under a Mike Huckabee Presidency?

It's a cool January day in our nations capitol. Snow had fallen earlier, leaving just a dusting for the throng of people gathered. There's not the record amount of people we saw last go around, but they are still out in high numbers and showing their support. Most have been waiting for this day for a long time. This day marks hope and a future for the republican party. The date is January 20th, 2012, and Mike Huckabee is ready for the biggest day of his life. Chief Justice John Roberts isn't worried about his last go at this thing and executes flawlessly. Mike Huckabee has just been sworn in as the 45th President of the United States of America. 

His Fiscal Policy

Some ultra-conservatives are worried the Mike Huckabee isn't who he says he is as far as taxes go. He's been labeled by some as a "fiscal-moderate" and only a true conservative on the social issues. He did cut taxes 90+ times as Governor of Arkansas, but, as his critics say "most were very small" and can't outweigh the 21 times when he added significant tax hikes. I won't be the first to say this, but this doesn't even begin to tell the story of what actually happened. As any knowledgeable person knows: taxes are necessary. It is unfortunate, yes, but we simply must help the government pay for certain things. Overall, Mike did a great job of cutting taxes. There were some situations that were out of his control. For starters: he entered his tenure with a 200 million dollar deficit. Some taxes were also out of his control, as Arkansas Health Care Association President Jim Cooper put it: "the private nursing home tax was necessary in order to avert future huge tax increases as a result of years of mismanagement." Mike Huckabee was dubbed a "friend of the taxpayer" by the Americans for Tax Reform for his cut in statewide spending. Mike also signed the first broad based tax cut in Arkansas history. The Arkansas Democrat Gazette gives Mike credit for the biggest tax cut in Arkansas History. No doubt about it-- he's a tax-cuttin' republican from head to toe. 

If you're not familiar with the Fair Tax, get used to it. I strongly encourage you to read Mike's book "Do the Right Thing." If you don't have time for the whole thing, at least read Chapter 10, "The Fairness and Force of the Fair tax". Here's a small taste of what you can expect, from FairTax.org: 

What is the FairTax plan?

The FairTax plan is a comprehensive proposal that replaces all federal income and payroll based taxes with an integrated approach including a progressive national retail sales tax, a prebate to ensure no American pays federal taxes on spending up to the poverty level, dollar-for-dollar federal revenue neutrality, and, through companion legislation, the repeal of the 16th Amendment.

The FairTax Act (HR 25, S 296) is nonpartisan legislation. It abolishes all federal personal and corporate income taxes, gift, estate, capital gains, alternative minimum, Social Security, Medicare, and self-employment taxes and replaces them with one simple, visible, federal retail sales tax  administered primarily by existing state sales tax authorities.

The FairTax taxes us only on what we choose to spend on new goods or services, not on what we earn. The FairTax is a fair, efficient, transparent, and intelligent solution to the frustration and inequity of our current tax system.

The FairTax:

• Enables workers to keep their entire paychecks
• Enables retirees to keep their entire pensions
• Refunds in advance the tax on purchases of basic necessities
• Allows American products to compete fairly
• Brings transparency and accountability to tax policy
• Ensures Social Security and Medicare funding
• Closes all loopholes and brings fairness to taxation
• Abolishes the IRS

 

That's just a small summary. The plan was created when a group of economic scholars from Harvard, MIT, Stanford and Boston College, among others, came together to try and create a new tax code, but weren't planning on it being quite so radical. There are no doubt many critics of the FairTax. In fact, in a 2008 Republican Primary debate, Mitt Romney took a shot at Huckabee by downplaying the FairTax, saying he's not sure it's as good as it sounds. Mike responded, "Actually, it's even better and more effective than I had time to describe." I could throw out statistic after statistic of positive consequences from the FairTax, but I don't have the time myself to do so. If you haven't already, I encourage you (after you are through reading of course!) to check out fairtax.org and familiarize yourself with the FairTax. 

Mike has a successful tenure as Governor of Arkansas to boast as  his resume. Remember the 200 million dollar deficit I alluded to earlier? When Mike left office, that had turned into an 850 million dollar surplus. During his tenure as Governor, welfare enrollment decline by nearly half. During his last year in office, the states economy grew 4.4%, easily beating the national average. Mike knows how to manage the economy, and knows that excessive spending isn't the answer. 

Social Policy 

Mike, as far as social issues go, is about as conservative as it gets. Being a former Baptist Minister, Mike feels very strongly about Social Issues, as I'm sure you know by now. His push for the "Sanctity of Life" is one of his bigger platforms. One of his more famous responses during debate came after Wolf Blitzer asked Mike if he believed in Evolution. Mike responded:

"I believe there is a God who was active in the creation process. Now, how did he do it, and when did he do it, and how long did he take? I don't honestly know, and I don't think knowing that would make me a better or a worse president ... if anybody wants to believe that they are the descendants of a primate, they are certainly welcome to do it – I don't know how far they will march that back...And in the words of Martin Luther "Here I stand, I can do no other. And I will not take that back."

Mike's response became one of the more famous responses of any debate and has millions of hits on YouTube. Mike, though very capable of being President, is not at all shy of his Christian beliefs. Even liberal democrats respect him for that, and respected that answer. Mike noted in his book that other candidates on stage leaned over and said, "I believe exactly the same thing." 

Mike is, of course, opposed to abortion and stem cell research. Both of these highlight Mike's push for the "Sanctity of Life." As a lifetime member of the National Rifle Association, he is also opposed to Gun Control. Mike is also strongly opposed to Homosexual Marriage. He believes that marriage is an institution and not to be mettled with. If you allow homosexual marriage, why not polygamy? After he is elected President, Mike immediately begins to push for legislation in favor of his own views and strongly supports the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Mike is the social conservative's dream come true and probably is in line with over 90% of the evangelical Christians in this country. 

Other Issues 

If you've been a Huckabee follower for a long time, you probably know about his past history with health issues. He used to be extremely overweight and had many health problems. As it stands now, he might be one of the most in shape politicians on the planet. Oh, Barack Obama plays basketball? Mike Huckabee runs marathons. He even penned a book called "Quit Digging your grave with a knife and fork" geared toward healthy eating. Barack Obama might advocate a government overhaul, which would include paying for morbidly obese people when they become ill and help with heart disease. You might say Mike's system is a tad more effective, as he wants to end heart disease and stop people from becoming morbidly obese. Hard to beat that from a health or an economic standpoint. AARP acknowledged Mike as a "Health Crusader." He also signed a law which mandates annual Body Mass Index (BMI) measurements for all public school children. The results were reported to parents and information was passed out, as well as encouraged in the schools, on how to eat right and be active. You could say Mike has the best healthcare system in the world-- prevent the sickness. 

Immigration is an issue that has got "lost in translation" during this time of our bad economy, but still an issue that needs addressing.(Quick side note: this is another positive attribute of the FairTax. No underground economy. Illegals could not evade taxes because they would be forced to purchase items.) Although he does not support an end to birthright citizenship, he does advocate building a 700 mile border fence and policing, but not militarize, the border. He supports increases in visas for highly skilled and highly educated applicants. This would be a highly effective form of immigration control. 

Mike did an excellent job as Governor of Arkansas. I would expect no less as President of the United States. In 2005, Time Magazine name Mike as one of the 5 Best Governors in the Nation and noted: "Huckabee has approached his states' troubles with energy and innovation." Mike Huckabee can bring that to the office of the President. He can be that shining light in dark times. He can roll up his sleeves and get things done. He can re-unite a party...and a nation. That's why on that cold, January day, I will have hope and joy for the future of this nation. I believe in this nation. It doesn't matter if you're democrat or republican. So you and Mike disagree on abortion? Or gay marriage? Who cares? Heck, even I disagree with some of Mike's policies. But I'm voting for him because I believe in him. I believe in what he's done, what he's doing and what he will do. 

Get Excited Huckabee Fans

In addition to my electoral predictor from an earlier post, this is more of why I truly believe Huck's got a great shot in 2012. 

The GOP

Lately, the GOP has been in a flux. With seemingly no leadership and the democrats taking over Washington, the GOP is in as big a hole as it's ever been in. The field for 2012 is wide open. Names have ranged from Romney, to Gingrich, to Pawlenty, to Palin and even General Patraeus. The list of possible candidates ranges to over 20 names (and yes, that includes Ron Paul). Yet one has begun to rise above the pack. After a 2008 campaign that started with him being completely unknown and having very little money (compared to the other candidates, that is), he ended it in second place, with his own TV show and radio program, a NY Times bestseller and a on the front of Time Magazine. I'm talking, of course, about Mike Huckabee. 

Even since his win in Iowa, he's had enthusiastic supporters everywhere he goes. Lines at book-signings for his new book "Do the Right Thing" extended into the parking lot. His show has landed a spot on prime time TV and seen excellent ratings. Yes, Mike Huckabee is becoming popular. It probably happened to all of us at some point. Maybe it's when we finally hit puberty, or we hit that home run in baseball or when we aced the test no one else did- at some point, most of us had that moment when we became popular seemingly overnight. Except, none of us are running for President of the United States. 

Mike has channeled his popularity from the entertainment industry to polls for the 2012 Presidential Election. He's leads every poll I've seen of GOP candidates, and most aren't inside the margin of error. He is the only on who is considered "popular" with a favorability rating of 44/36 (being 44% like him, 36% don't). And, with the margin of error, he could be the only candidate within a single digit deficit of the President. With his TV show's rising popularity and his book still performing well, along with his dedicated followers left over from 2008, it's hard to see how Mike Huckabee won't win the Republican Nomination in 2012. 

The Media Darling Obama 

So that leaves Obama. His fluent speaking style and charming personality would make any GOP candidate cringe. However, President Obama is currently in an unique situation. His spending bills in the poor economic time are considered risky, and its put him in a odd situation. If this economic package is a full blown success and turns the economy around (I believe, highly unlikely), then he wins re-election. If it completely fails, he loses (he probably wouldn't even win the Democratic Nomination). However, what is most likely is that his stimulus package does have some positive effect, but doesn't "stimulate" like it was supposed to. Come the time of the Iowa caucus, the economy is still in poor shape, even if a little better than it was when he was elected. Even if it's significantly better, but still below average, I think he's still in bad shape. Because now we have a average-at-best economy and and now the national debts as high as it's ever been. Americans are going to blame him, and will not re-elect him. 

Enter, Mike Huckabee. Who, after gaining momentum with early wins in Iowa and South Carolina, becomes near impossible to stop. He cleans up shop in the South and performs extremely well with moderates. He wins the republican nomination then sneaks out an electoral victory on election day. 

It's an exciting thought for Huckabee fans, that a man like him can get elected President. They always say, "A Good Man can't be elected President." 

I don't believe that. 

Electoral Predictor- and a bit of good news!

Barring the end of the world on December 21st, 2012, we need to begin worrying about the election a month and a half before that. At the rate he's going, President Obama is going to have to mortgage the White House and Auction off a couple of National Monuments to pay for some spending (this, of course, is after he has squeezed us and our children's pockets dry). I don't believe President Obama is doing a horrible job as President, but I honestly believe his erroneous spending will be very costly in the long term. 

We, the people, need need to utilize our "check" on President Obama and show our displeasure by not re-electing him. Although I like President Obama the man, we simply cannot afford "4 more years", as will no doubt be chanted by mobs of Barack Obama kool-aid drinkers. Here's the scenario by which I believe this can, and will, happen. This, of course, is assuming Obama's approval rating drops quite a bit more. It's not uncommon for a Presidential approval rating to be so high in his first few months, in fact you might even say his his lower than usual. My current prediction is that his approval rating will be relatively high all year. However, at the end of 2009 and into 2010, that will slowly start to change. The "new and exciting" Barack Obama's administration becomes politics as usual and disappoints the millions of moderates and moderate-conservatives that voted for him. "Change" does, in fact, come-- in the form of the largest increase to our national debt ever in 1 year. 

According to a recent poll, Obama is currently winning the 2012 Presidential race by double digits, the closest competitor being Mike Huckabee, who is losing 52-39. Before campaigning rolls around in 2010/'11, that number will be virtually tied, and that's optimistic for Obama. If his economic plan completely bombs, I'd be surprised if he even wins the Democratic Nomination. But let's assume he does--that still leaves the republican field wide open. Here's what will happen: 

A rundown of the candidates: Mike Huckabee, who had little money and was unknown in 2008, is now the frontrunner. His FoxNews show and NY Times Best Seller make him a "fan favorite". Mitt Romney is gearing up to be the "Champion of the Moderate" to take McCain's place. Sarah Palin is hoping her charm and Alaskan "spunk" can carry her to the White House, while Bobby Jindal is hoping to be the republican version of Obama. Others like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels may float their name, but will quickly see they lack the support. Newt Gringrich will also join the race, but American's want a new face for the republicans- and Newt isn't that. 

Now take a breath....here comes the state-by-state rundown.

This time, Iowans don't pick a little known candidate, they select Mike Huckabee, who now has momentum, along with a lead in the polls. Mitt Romney comes away with a victory in New Hampshire, with Sarah Palin finishing a surprising second. Wyoming stays with Mitt, as Bobby Jindal pulls the upset in Michigan. This throws the race into a frenzy, with 4 legit candidates heading to South Carolina. Mitt wins Nevada, but South Carolina isn't the race we thought it would be. Governor Huckabee carries South Carolina with 41% of the vote, with Jindal falling to second with 23%. Sarah Palin wins her first state with Hawaii. Maine, of course, falls to Romney, while Polls show a "too close to call in Florida" (shocker!) but eventually falls to Sarah Palin, coming away with a shocking victory, making it even more of a dog fight heading to Super Tuesday. However, Super Tuesday changes things. Mike Huckabee is the Big Winner on Super Tuesday, taking Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota,  Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia. Sarah Palin carries Alaska, Connecticut, Montana, New York and North Dakota. Bobby Jindal comes away with much needed delegates from California, and delegates from Arizona and Delaware. Romney sweeps up the rest, with Massachusetts, Colorado and Utah. Romney can do the math, and drops out of the race. 

And then there were 3....

Bobby Jindal, after his exciting California win, sweeps up Louisiana after Super Tuesday. But Mike Huckabee reels in Kansas and then Washington, who, along with Minnesota, becomes Mike's second "northern" state. Sarah Palin is still making strong shows in the polls, but is finding it difficult to win any states. Washington DC and Maryland fall into Jindal's lap, while Virginia goes to Huckabee. Sarah Palin breaks her slump with a big win in Wisconsin. Jindal's campaign takes a critical hit when it finds 2 states they were hinging on, Ohio and Texas, both go to Governor Huckabee. Although she wins Rhode Island, Palin can no longer play with the big boys, and respectfully bows out of the race, and throws her support behind the leader, Huckabee, hoping to capture a another run at the second most powerful person in the world. Huckabee, with plenty of Southern States left, is looking like the presumed nominee. Jindal does take Vermont, but Huckabee delivers a huge blow when he reels of 6 straight states with Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska and Kentucky. Jindal's campaign ends as he is mathematically eliminated. Huckabee is primed for a battle with Obama. 

In the general, it looks like another difficult race for Huck. Huckabee names Newt Gingrich for the lower part of the ticket, because he was the smartest man available.  Obama starts off election day strong, winning most of the North East, reeling in Maine, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts. He also takes New Jersey,  Maryland and North Carolina. But Huckabee comes roaring back with Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee. Huck's strong showing in Ohio and Pennsylvania give him some momentum. Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas fall in line for Huckabee, along with another flipped state from 2008, Iowa, which joins Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania in that category. Obama takes Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and his home state of Illinois. Missouri and Florida are too close to call. Huck gets another surge with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado (flipped) and Wyoming while Obama wins New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and flips Arizona the opposite way. Huck then takes Montana and Idaho, while Obama sweeps up the West Coast with California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, as Huck benefits from Sarah Palin's support by taking Alaska. 

That leaves the race at: Huckabee- 235 and Obama- 265, with Florida and Missouri too close to call. Huckabee has to win them both. It won't come down to Florida this time, as they decide just after the West Coast is done that they're following Huckabee. That now puts the Electoral Votes at Huckabbe- 262 and Obama- 265. Missouri will decide the race. 

Around 6 in the morning, CNN is first to report that Mike Huckabee will carry Missouri and is the next President of the United States. There'll be a legal battle, but to no avail. 

There's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.