Friday, May 22, 2009

Electoral Predictor- and a bit of good news!

Barring the end of the world on December 21st, 2012, we need to begin worrying about the election a month and a half before that. At the rate he's going, President Obama is going to have to mortgage the White House and Auction off a couple of National Monuments to pay for some spending (this, of course, is after he has squeezed us and our children's pockets dry). I don't believe President Obama is doing a horrible job as President, but I honestly believe his erroneous spending will be very costly in the long term. 

We, the people, need need to utilize our "check" on President Obama and show our displeasure by not re-electing him. Although I like President Obama the man, we simply cannot afford "4 more years", as will no doubt be chanted by mobs of Barack Obama kool-aid drinkers. Here's the scenario by which I believe this can, and will, happen. This, of course, is assuming Obama's approval rating drops quite a bit more. It's not uncommon for a Presidential approval rating to be so high in his first few months, in fact you might even say his his lower than usual. My current prediction is that his approval rating will be relatively high all year. However, at the end of 2009 and into 2010, that will slowly start to change. The "new and exciting" Barack Obama's administration becomes politics as usual and disappoints the millions of moderates and moderate-conservatives that voted for him. "Change" does, in fact, come-- in the form of the largest increase to our national debt ever in 1 year. 

According to a recent poll, Obama is currently winning the 2012 Presidential race by double digits, the closest competitor being Mike Huckabee, who is losing 52-39. Before campaigning rolls around in 2010/'11, that number will be virtually tied, and that's optimistic for Obama. If his economic plan completely bombs, I'd be surprised if he even wins the Democratic Nomination. But let's assume he does--that still leaves the republican field wide open. Here's what will happen: 

A rundown of the candidates: Mike Huckabee, who had little money and was unknown in 2008, is now the frontrunner. His FoxNews show and NY Times Best Seller make him a "fan favorite". Mitt Romney is gearing up to be the "Champion of the Moderate" to take McCain's place. Sarah Palin is hoping her charm and Alaskan "spunk" can carry her to the White House, while Bobby Jindal is hoping to be the republican version of Obama. Others like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels may float their name, but will quickly see they lack the support. Newt Gringrich will also join the race, but American's want a new face for the republicans- and Newt isn't that. 

Now take a comes the state-by-state rundown.

This time, Iowans don't pick a little known candidate, they select Mike Huckabee, who now has momentum, along with a lead in the polls. Mitt Romney comes away with a victory in New Hampshire, with Sarah Palin finishing a surprising second. Wyoming stays with Mitt, as Bobby Jindal pulls the upset in Michigan. This throws the race into a frenzy, with 4 legit candidates heading to South Carolina. Mitt wins Nevada, but South Carolina isn't the race we thought it would be. Governor Huckabee carries South Carolina with 41% of the vote, with Jindal falling to second with 23%. Sarah Palin wins her first state with Hawaii. Maine, of course, falls to Romney, while Polls show a "too close to call in Florida" (shocker!) but eventually falls to Sarah Palin, coming away with a shocking victory, making it even more of a dog fight heading to Super Tuesday. However, Super Tuesday changes things. Mike Huckabee is the Big Winner on Super Tuesday, taking Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota,  Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia. Sarah Palin carries Alaska, Connecticut, Montana, New York and North Dakota. Bobby Jindal comes away with much needed delegates from California, and delegates from Arizona and Delaware. Romney sweeps up the rest, with Massachusetts, Colorado and Utah. Romney can do the math, and drops out of the race. 

And then there were 3....

Bobby Jindal, after his exciting California win, sweeps up Louisiana after Super Tuesday. But Mike Huckabee reels in Kansas and then Washington, who, along with Minnesota, becomes Mike's second "northern" state. Sarah Palin is still making strong shows in the polls, but is finding it difficult to win any states. Washington DC and Maryland fall into Jindal's lap, while Virginia goes to Huckabee. Sarah Palin breaks her slump with a big win in Wisconsin. Jindal's campaign takes a critical hit when it finds 2 states they were hinging on, Ohio and Texas, both go to Governor Huckabee. Although she wins Rhode Island, Palin can no longer play with the big boys, and respectfully bows out of the race, and throws her support behind the leader, Huckabee, hoping to capture a another run at the second most powerful person in the world. Huckabee, with plenty of Southern States left, is looking like the presumed nominee. Jindal does take Vermont, but Huckabee delivers a huge blow when he reels of 6 straight states with Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska and Kentucky. Jindal's campaign ends as he is mathematically eliminated. Huckabee is primed for a battle with Obama. 

In the general, it looks like another difficult race for Huck. Huckabee names Newt Gingrich for the lower part of the ticket, because he was the smartest man available.  Obama starts off election day strong, winning most of the North East, reeling in Maine, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts. He also takes New Jersey,  Maryland and North Carolina. But Huckabee comes roaring back with Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee. Huck's strong showing in Ohio and Pennsylvania give him some momentum. Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas fall in line for Huckabee, along with another flipped state from 2008, Iowa, which joins Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania in that category. Obama takes Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and his home state of Illinois. Missouri and Florida are too close to call. Huck gets another surge with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado (flipped) and Wyoming while Obama wins New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and flips Arizona the opposite way. Huck then takes Montana and Idaho, while Obama sweeps up the West Coast with California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, as Huck benefits from Sarah Palin's support by taking Alaska. 

That leaves the race at: Huckabee- 235 and Obama- 265, with Florida and Missouri too close to call. Huckabee has to win them both. It won't come down to Florida this time, as they decide just after the West Coast is done that they're following Huckabee. That now puts the Electoral Votes at Huckabbe- 262 and Obama- 265. Missouri will decide the race. 

Around 6 in the morning, CNN is first to report that Mike Huckabee will carry Missouri and is the next President of the United States. There'll be a legal battle, but to no avail. 

There's my prediction and I'm sticking to it. 


  1. Good post. I think that Obama's outrageous spending is only one of the many manifistations of false humanist philosophy. He rejects the Bible, God, and the fundamental principles of freedom.

  2. In Obama's defense- I don't think he's purposely doing this. That's why I said I like the person, but some of his policies are ridiculous.

  3. One thing wrong in the prediction of the electoral college, I'd say that Utah stays red. It's quite a dependable state for the Republicans and I don't see it leaving the Republican column for quite some time.