The Frontrunners

I've already covered the lightweights, so here are the favorites:

Newt Gingrich- He's a familiar face in unfamiliar times. I think he's going to pick up Palin supporters as her support drops. He's very smart and very capable. He will perform well in debates and has a record of fighting democrats. However due to that, he hurts his bi-partisan appeal and people know, if Gingrich is in the White House it will be politics as usual. He will be in the race until the end but ultimately will hope to get a VP spot, which is not that unlikely. Chances of winning: 11%

Tim Pawlenty- Pawlenty has recently become very popular, and people consider him a strong candidate in 2012. He speaks like a fair-minded conservative and comes from an important state in Minnesota, that usually swings democrat. He's going to be a tough out and could rob Palin and Huckabee of votes, but likely will not have enough support to win. He's another who could easily find himself in a VP spot and possibly another run in 2016. Chances of Winning: 15%

Mitt Romney- Easily could be considered the most popular man in the race. It's basically a wash between him and Mike Huckabee. Mitt has performed well in the polls. Mitt's done a little better than Mike at fundraising (a lot better, actually) but lacks the popularity and grassroots support Mike has. Mitt is probably considered the frontrunner right now, but I think he's too generic a candidate to win. He wins if Jindal, Huckabee and Palin perform badly and it falls to him. But if one can take this race by the reigns, he has no chance. Chances of Winning: 25%

Mike Huckabee- He's splitting time atop the 2012 polls with Mitt Romney, but not among the favorables. He's easily the most popular candidate. Right now, it's a toss up to who you would consider the "favorite" in the 2012 race. Although he has popularity and grassroots support (such as Huck's Army), he lacks in fundraising. His TV show has been very good for him, spreading his name among conservatives. His recent hosting of the O Reilly Factor has really helped as well. Right now, I think you have to consider it a "Romney-lean" as to who the frontrunner is for the sole reason that he can raise money. But if you consider that Mike looks very good in the all important Iowa caucus, he could have momentum (and money) swing his way right off the bat. Chances of Winning: 25%

One thing is clear: it's going to be a dog fight in the GOP field in 2012. With many fresh faces and many familiar ones, anyone could come out and win in this field. Although we have 2 men leading the pack now, there are many popular men (and women) in the middle and bottom of the pack who could make some serious noise....and possibly even win.

Polls, Polls, Polls

1. - Real Clear Politics has a new poll that places Mike in a dead heat with Romney. Here's the link, but this is essentially the entire article anyway: 
   

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have swapped spots on top of Fox News' latest test of the 2012 Republican presidential field.

2012 Primary Election Matchup
Romney 22 (+4 from May)
Huckabee 21 (+1)
Palin 17 (+4)
Giuliani 13 (+1)
Gingrich 9 (-5)
Jindal 3 (unch)
J. Bush 1 (-2)
Pawlenty 1 
Sanford -- (-4)

Ten percent said it was too soon to decide, while 2 percent were undecided.

The poll asked voters what would be the best job for Sarah Palin now that she's resigned. Among all voters, the top choice (32 percent) was homemaker; 17 percent said she should be a talk show host, 14 percent said vice president, while just 6 percent said president. Among Republican voters VP was the top choice at 27 percent, followed by homemaker (18 percent), talk show host (14 percent) and then president (12 percent).

The generic 2010 ballot test shows Democrats still ahead, though their numbers have slipped. If the election were held today, 43 percent would vote for a Democratic candidate, while 38 percent would pick the Republican -- a 5 point gap, down from a 12 point advantage in May. Congress' job approval rating has dropped 11 points to 30 percent, while 60 percent disapprove. The split was 41/49 in May.

The telephone survey was conducted July 21-22, with an overall sample of 900 registered voters and a +/- 3 percent margin of error. The Republican primary sample of 303 voters had a margin of error of +/- 6 percent.

After the jump, see some Fav/Unfav ratings for government figures.

Favorable Ratings
Obama 62 / 33
Democratic Party 50 / 41
Republican Party 36 / 53
Sotomayor 41 / 24
Pelosi 29 / 47
Palin 38 / 51

So there you have it, from Real Clear Politics. It just solidifies the fact that this could quickly turn into a 2-dog race. It feels as if two incumbents are running with Jindal, Pawlenty, Gingrich and the others just nipping at their heels. I think this is good news for Mike, as it should be easy to tear apart Mitt's record. 

-"Blue Dogs" vote pivotal in Health Care Reform.

-I wonder, with Mike being better known this time around, if he'll receive any big(ger) endorsements. Of course, he had Chuck Norris last time. I wonder who he'll get this time? How awesome would it be to get Rick Warren? 

-Last, I don't agree with everything that comes out of Mike's mouth. I support him because he is the type of man who can lead us through great and tough times. He reminds me of Ronald Reagan, which is why I long for 2012 to reach. Leave me a comment to why you support Mike. 

Sotomayor, The Huck Man and Funny People

-As I'm writing this, the honorable Judge Sonia Sotomayor is in the process of being confirmed. It should go down without a fight. As a conservative, I will note that I, for one, will choose not to care about this today. Sotomayor, as controversial as she's been, is a very qualified Judge who I believe will be fair. We have to pick our fights, and this is not one of them. She's going to be confirmed anyway, so why fight it? Especially with the growing population of hispanics that are beginning to make up a decent chunk of the electorate.  Let's use our resources to fight deficit spending and healthcare reform, not this. 

-The Huck Man (my new nickname for Mike Huckabee....because, you know, we're practically best friends. I mean, I shook his hand at a book-signing) is still "flying under the radar", apparently. This, for reasons I can't even fathom. What else can the man too? He's been the most popular candidate in the polls (Fox, CNN, Washington Post, etc.) by FAR. He's also been leading or one point off the top in every poll I've seen including many other GOP Internet polls. Yet for some reason, he slips pollsters minds while they are polling for Mitt and Palin. (They might as well test Jeb Bush and Ron Paul as well. Let's just forget the frontrunner, eh?)

-As I was watching Al Franken deliver his Sotomayor love letter in the hearings today, I just thought, "What is he doing in public office?" He looks, and acts, like he should be in the cast of "Funny People", not in the US Congress. But there he sits. 

-Halfway through Glenn Beck's "Common Sense". Beck is very cynical and a little loud (much like his show), but brings up some excellent points. One thing you find out about Glenn very fast is, although he is a big-conservative, he's not a big-republican. He equally hates all politicians. Although his book, thus far, is at times cynical and pessimistic, it should be read by all Americans, regardless of political affiliation. I think democrats would be surprised to hear that Bush takes more shots than Obama in this book. 

-BREAKING NEWS: OFFICIALS TO OBTAIN SEARCH WARRANT FOR JACKSON'S DOCTOR'S HOUSE. 

BREAKING NEWS: JACKSON'S DOCTOR GOES OUT TO LUNCH.

Is anyone else tired of the day-to-day soap opera that unfolds on every major news network, highlighting Michael Jackson's death? Ok, he died. It's sad, and I expect it to be reported. His funeral is a big deal, and I don't mind hearing about that. It's a homicide? Ok, interesting. But do I really want a line-by-line reading of his will or a daily account of his doctors? NO! It's getting out of hand. GET IT TOGETHER, PEOPLE!! There are still important events happening, like, gee....I don't know, the confirmation of a Judge to the Bench! Or how about America's gradual path to SOCIALISM! Pull yourselves together. 

-Michael Vick is back to the NFL. Sad story....

-Can we (and by We, I mean the people) STOP asking to see President Obama's birth certificate? Nobody likes a sore loser. The man's American. And guess what? HE'S CHRISTIAN!! Because he has dark skin and a funny name we now can't believe he's an American? We can do better than that. 

Huckamania

After a short layoff, I've decided to continue blogging. Except I'll be changing my format. Hope you enjoy, and please leave comments!

-Mike Huckabee substituted for Bill O' Reilly on Friday on the "O' Reilly Factor." Apparently, the folks over at "the Factor" must have thought Mike did well enough the first time to ask him on again. Maybe Mike will become Bill's stand-in? Either way, the "Huckabee Factor" cleaned up shop outperforming all other major news stations at that time. (Mike should be used to that)

-Mike wins a poll for te 2012 Republican Nomination....AGAIN!! Except this time, he beat Romney by a cool 5 points, outside the margin. He was also able to defeat Palin even worse. This all from the Washington Post. He also won in the favorables, where he was again most popular among GOP candidates and polling better than Obama. Yet despite all this, Raumussen Polls continue to leave him out of their polling for 2012, for reasons beyond any understanding. For this reason, they are now on my new list, the "Axis of Evil", which also includes Rahm Emmanuel, Barney Frank and that Paris idiot who bashed Carrie Prejean. (while I'm on that subject, Carrie, will you marry me?)

-In other news, I hope to bring you more of an "inside scoop" in the upcoming years. I'm doing my best to work for a 2010 race (Matt Lockett in Kentucky 6th) a and a 2012 race (Mike Huckabee). If so, I will keep everyone updated on day-to-day events. We'll see!

Time to turn it into "Huck Mode"

In 2008, Mike Huckabee was looked down upon as the “God-Candidate”. Maybe not so much looked down upon as counted out. Sure, he got questions in debates—about evolution. Sure, he got press coverage—when his Christmas ad showed a cross in the background. It seems like we never actually heard about the issues with Mike. Which is a shame. It was frustrating as a Huckabee fan that I was told I should “pick a real candidate” while being laughed at.

Only a year later….whose laughing now?

The tables have been drastically turned. Mike has turned into a “third party religious candidate” to frontrunner. Which is why I’m calling all Huckabee fans to click on “Huck Mode.” Defined by Webster’s dictionary, “Huck Mode” is: “1) an attitude of severe pride for Mike Huckabee, 2) a non-stop campaign for Huckabee or 3) being a true conservative with defined, useful ideas.”

I’m calling all Huckabee fans to turn on all three. Here’s how to do it.

Grassroots

According to CNN, Fox News and just about every internet poll in the world, Mike Huckabee is the frontrunner for the Republican nomination 2012.  It seems, barring a freak incident (aka, catastrophes), that it is inevitable that he will run again in 2012. He’s already begun to schedule Iowa events in the hopes that Iowans will again pick him as the republican nominee. This seems very likely. If he can win the state with little support or media attention, and very little money, then he can win it as the frontrunner.  This is a cause for pride.

One huge way to show that pride for Mike is through grassroots websites and groups for Mike. A great one is Huck’s Army. Be sure to visit the website or the facebook page and become a member of both. Huck’s Army even has a forum where you may go and discuss all things Mike Huckabee. Blogging for Mike is always good, as well as showing him a little love on social networking (facebook, twitter, etc.) is always useful as well. Even make a small donation (a large on works too) to Huck Pac and create an account with them as well. I can tell you that the more these groups grow, the stronger Mike looks, and becomes, with the upcoming elections in 2010 and 2012. This is vital if you want to see a conservative revolution in these years.

However, you joining is not enough. Be sure that your friends, co-workers, family members and total strangers that you meet on a day-to-day basis, are very aware of these sites as well. You’d be surprised at how fast a group can grow if each member took this mindset and accepted the group as it’s own and spread the word. I challenge you to find out.

Constant Campaigning

Want to become a Mike Huckabee spokesman? Guess what? Yes you can!! (sorry for the choice of words…) Whenever you talk about Mike to a friend, you have the ability to impact the way he votes. If you consider yourself a “Mike Huckabee fan”, you instantly become one of his (many) spokesman—each as important as the next. It’s very important that you familiarize yourself with Mike, his policies and his past, the good, bad and the ugly. You need to be able to tell the person who asks about your bumper sticker why it’s there and why Mike would benefit this country. You’ll also find the “haters”. These people could be anywhere from Romney fans to liberals, who will attack Mike and his former policies. (If you need a good reference point for this, check my blog archive. I’m sure you’ll find useful tools there.) You need to be able to tell these people the truth and support your opinion.

Now that you are on Mike’s communication staff, try your hand in advertisement staffing as well.  A “Mike Huckabee 2012” bumper sticker is VITAL right now. A t-shirt or two wouldn’t hurt either. I’ve also just ordered my “Mike Huckabee Signature Coffee mug” from Mikehuckabee.com.  Different items like these are great conversations starters for you to tell people about Mike and spread the word about the many organizations (such as Huck’s Army) that you’re involved in, and to invite them too!

 

Conservative Ideals

If you’re reading this, then you more than likely agree with the spread of conservative ideals. You probably want less government and lower taxes. You are probably conservative on most social issues. Maybe you just like the Fair Tax. You don’t have to agree with all of Mike’s policies to like him. But I think all of us, regardless of whether or not we agree on each little form of policy, want to see real change in Washington and want to see it in the form of Mike Huckabee. We want to see it in the form of faith and character, as well as in the form of bringing real, positive change to all our lives. We can all agree on that.

I hope you’ll join me along with many others devoted to Huckabee’s cause in changing politics as usual and to start acting like a frontrunner. Instead of being satisfied with where we are, let’s build the strongest grassroots army the world of politics has ever seen and show Mike we are with him every step on the way. It doesn’t start in two or three years—it starts now! Now is when we turn on Huck mode and begin to spread the word. I hope you’ll join us.

Electoral Predictor- and a bit of good news!

Barring the end of the world on December 21st, 2012, we need to begin worrying about the election a month and a half before that. At the rate he's going, President Obama is going to have to mortgage the White House and Auction off a couple of National Monuments to pay for some spending (this, of course, is after he has squeezed us and our children's pockets dry). I don't believe President Obama is doing a horrible job as President, but I honestly believe his erroneous spending will be very costly in the long term. 

We, the people, need need to utilize our "check" on President Obama and show our displeasure by not re-electing him. Although I like President Obama the man, we simply cannot afford "4 more years", as will no doubt be chanted by mobs of Barack Obama kool-aid drinkers. Here's the scenario by which I believe this can, and will, happen. This, of course, is assuming Obama's approval rating drops quite a bit more. It's not uncommon for a Presidential approval rating to be so high in his first few months, in fact you might even say his his lower than usual. My current prediction is that his approval rating will be relatively high all year. However, at the end of 2009 and into 2010, that will slowly start to change. The "new and exciting" Barack Obama's administration becomes politics as usual and disappoints the millions of moderates and moderate-conservatives that voted for him. "Change" does, in fact, come-- in the form of the largest increase to our national debt ever in 1 year. 

According to a recent poll, Obama is currently winning the 2012 Presidential race by double digits, the closest competitor being Mike Huckabee, who is losing 52-39. Before campaigning rolls around in 2010/'11, that number will be virtually tied, and that's optimistic for Obama. If his economic plan completely bombs, I'd be surprised if he even wins the Democratic Nomination. But let's assume he does--that still leaves the republican field wide open. Here's what will happen: 

A rundown of the candidates: Mike Huckabee, who had little money and was unknown in 2008, is now the frontrunner. His FoxNews show and NY Times Best Seller make him a "fan favorite". Mitt Romney is gearing up to be the "Champion of the Moderate" to take McCain's place. Sarah Palin is hoping her charm and Alaskan "spunk" can carry her to the White House, while Bobby Jindal is hoping to be the republican version of Obama. Others like Tim Pawlenty and Mitch Daniels may float their name, but will quickly see they lack the support. Newt Gringrich will also join the race, but American's want a new face for the republicans- and Newt isn't that. 

Now take a breath....here comes the state-by-state rundown.

This time, Iowans don't pick a little known candidate, they select Mike Huckabee, who now has momentum, along with a lead in the polls. Mitt Romney comes away with a victory in New Hampshire, with Sarah Palin finishing a surprising second. Wyoming stays with Mitt, as Bobby Jindal pulls the upset in Michigan. This throws the race into a frenzy, with 4 legit candidates heading to South Carolina. Mitt wins Nevada, but South Carolina isn't the race we thought it would be. Governor Huckabee carries South Carolina with 41% of the vote, with Jindal falling to second with 23%. Sarah Palin wins her first state with Hawaii. Maine, of course, falls to Romney, while Polls show a "too close to call in Florida" (shocker!) but eventually falls to Sarah Palin, coming away with a shocking victory, making it even more of a dog fight heading to Super Tuesday. However, Super Tuesday changes things. Mike Huckabee is the Big Winner on Super Tuesday, taking Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Illinois, Minnesota,  Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee and West Virginia. Sarah Palin carries Alaska, Connecticut, Montana, New York and North Dakota. Bobby Jindal comes away with much needed delegates from California, and delegates from Arizona and Delaware. Romney sweeps up the rest, with Massachusetts, Colorado and Utah. Romney can do the math, and drops out of the race. 

And then there were 3....

Bobby Jindal, after his exciting California win, sweeps up Louisiana after Super Tuesday. But Mike Huckabee reels in Kansas and then Washington, who, along with Minnesota, becomes Mike's second "northern" state. Sarah Palin is still making strong shows in the polls, but is finding it difficult to win any states. Washington DC and Maryland fall into Jindal's lap, while Virginia goes to Huckabee. Sarah Palin breaks her slump with a big win in Wisconsin. Jindal's campaign takes a critical hit when it finds 2 states they were hinging on, Ohio and Texas, both go to Governor Huckabee. Although she wins Rhode Island, Palin can no longer play with the big boys, and respectfully bows out of the race, and throws her support behind the leader, Huckabee, hoping to capture a another run at the second most powerful person in the world. Huckabee, with plenty of Southern States left, is looking like the presumed nominee. Jindal does take Vermont, but Huckabee delivers a huge blow when he reels of 6 straight states with Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Indiana, North Carolina, Nebraska and Kentucky. Jindal's campaign ends as he is mathematically eliminated. Huckabee is primed for a battle with Obama. 

In the general, it looks like another difficult race for Huck. Huckabee names Newt Gingrich for the lower part of the ticket, because he was the smartest man available.  Obama starts off election day strong, winning most of the North East, reeling in Maine, New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Connecticut and Massachusetts. He also takes New Jersey,  Maryland and North Carolina. But Huckabee comes roaring back with Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Tennessee. Huck's strong showing in Ohio and Pennsylvania give him some momentum. Mississippi, Louisiana and Arkansas fall in line for Huckabee, along with another flipped state from 2008, Iowa, which joins Virginia, Indiana, Ohio and Pennsylvania in that category. Obama takes Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin and his home state of Illinois. Missouri and Florida are too close to call. Huck gets another surge with Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Colorado (flipped) and Wyoming while Obama wins New Mexico, Nevada, Utah and flips Arizona the opposite way. Huck then takes Montana and Idaho, while Obama sweeps up the West Coast with California, Hawaii, Oregon and Washington, as Huck benefits from Sarah Palin's support by taking Alaska. 

That leaves the race at: Huckabee- 235 and Obama- 265, with Florida and Missouri too close to call. Huckabee has to win them both. It won't come down to Florida this time, as they decide just after the West Coast is done that they're following Huckabee. That now puts the Electoral Votes at Huckabbe- 262 and Obama- 265. Missouri will decide the race. 

Around 6 in the morning, CNN is first to report that Mike Huckabee will carry Missouri and is the next President of the United States. There'll be a legal battle, but to no avail. 

There's my prediction and I'm sticking to it.