In addition to my electoral predictor from an earlier post, this is more of why I truly believe Huck's got a great shot in 2012.
Lately, the GOP has been in a flux. With seemingly no leadership and the democrats taking over Washington, the GOP is in as big a hole as it's ever been in. The field for 2012 is wide open. Names have ranged from Romney, to Gingrich, to Pawlenty, to Palin and even General Patraeus. The list of possible candidates ranges to over 20 names (and yes, that includes Ron Paul). Yet one has begun to rise above the pack. After a 2008 campaign that started with him being completely unknown and having very little money (compared to the other candidates, that is), he ended it in second place, with his own TV show and radio program, a NY Times bestseller and a on the front of Time Magazine. I'm talking, of course, about Mike Huckabee.
Even since his win in Iowa, he's had enthusiastic supporters everywhere he goes. Lines at book-signings for his new book "Do the Right Thing" extended into the parking lot. His show has landed a spot on prime time TV and seen excellent ratings. Yes, Mike Huckabee is becoming popular. It probably happened to all of us at some point. Maybe it's when we finally hit puberty, or we hit that home run in baseball or when we aced the test no one else did- at some point, most of us had that moment when we became popular seemingly overnight. Except, none of us are running for President of the United States.
Mike has channeled his popularity from the entertainment industry to polls for the 2012 Presidential Election. He's leads every poll I've seen of GOP candidates, and most aren't inside the margin of error. He is the only on who is considered "popular" with a favorability rating of 44/36 (being 44% like him, 36% don't). And, with the margin of error, he could be the only candidate within a single digit deficit of the President. With his TV show's rising popularity and his book still performing well, along with his dedicated followers left over from 2008, it's hard to see how Mike Huckabee won't win the Republican Nomination in 2012.
The Media Darling Obama
So that leaves Obama. His fluent speaking style and charming personality would make any GOP candidate cringe. However, President Obama is currently in an unique situation. His spending bills in the poor economic time are considered risky, and its put him in a odd situation. If this economic package is a full blown success and turns the economy around (I believe, highly unlikely), then he wins re-election. If it completely fails, he loses (he probably wouldn't even win the Democratic Nomination). However, what is most likely is that his stimulus package does have some positive effect, but doesn't "stimulate" like it was supposed to. Come the time of the Iowa caucus, the economy is still in poor shape, even if a little better than it was when he was elected. Even if it's significantly better, but still below average, I think he's still in bad shape. Because now we have a average-at-best economy and and now the national debts as high as it's ever been. Americans are going to blame him, and will not re-elect him.
Enter, Mike Huckabee. Who, after gaining momentum with early wins in Iowa and South Carolina, becomes near impossible to stop. He cleans up shop in the South and performs extremely well with moderates. He wins the republican nomination then sneaks out an electoral victory on election day.
It's an exciting thought for Huckabee fans, that a man like him can get elected President. They always say, "A Good Man can't be elected President."
I don't believe that.