The Frontrunners

I've already covered the lightweights, so here are the favorites:

Newt Gingrich- He's a familiar face in unfamiliar times. I think he's going to pick up Palin supporters as her support drops. He's very smart and very capable. He will perform well in debates and has a record of fighting democrats. However due to that, he hurts his bi-partisan appeal and people know, if Gingrich is in the White House it will be politics as usual. He will be in the race until the end but ultimately will hope to get a VP spot, which is not that unlikely. Chances of winning: 11%

Tim Pawlenty- Pawlenty has recently become very popular, and people consider him a strong candidate in 2012. He speaks like a fair-minded conservative and comes from an important state in Minnesota, that usually swings democrat. He's going to be a tough out and could rob Palin and Huckabee of votes, but likely will not have enough support to win. He's another who could easily find himself in a VP spot and possibly another run in 2016. Chances of Winning: 15%

Mitt Romney- Easily could be considered the most popular man in the race. It's basically a wash between him and Mike Huckabee. Mitt has performed well in the polls. Mitt's done a little better than Mike at fundraising (a lot better, actually) but lacks the popularity and grassroots support Mike has. Mitt is probably considered the frontrunner right now, but I think he's too generic a candidate to win. He wins if Jindal, Huckabee and Palin perform badly and it falls to him. But if one can take this race by the reigns, he has no chance. Chances of Winning: 25%

Mike Huckabee- He's splitting time atop the 2012 polls with Mitt Romney, but not among the favorables. He's easily the most popular candidate. Right now, it's a toss up to who you would consider the "favorite" in the 2012 race. Although he has popularity and grassroots support (such as Huck's Army), he lacks in fundraising. His TV show has been very good for him, spreading his name among conservatives. His recent hosting of the O Reilly Factor has really helped as well. Right now, I think you have to consider it a "Romney-lean" as to who the frontrunner is for the sole reason that he can raise money. But if you consider that Mike looks very good in the all important Iowa caucus, he could have momentum (and money) swing his way right off the bat. Chances of Winning: 25%

One thing is clear: it's going to be a dog fight in the GOP field in 2012. With many fresh faces and many familiar ones, anyone could come out and win in this field. Although we have 2 men leading the pack now, there are many popular men (and women) in the middle and bottom of the pack who could make some serious noise....and possibly even win.

The Competition

On a rather slow day in news (just a Supreme Court vote, two prominent baseball players testing positive  for steroids and a keg at the White House), I'm going to take a creative look at the GOP field for 2012, including Mike and his competition. They come in ascending order of best chance of winning. 

The Lightweights (Yes Sarah Palin is a lightweight) And let's be clear, it's not that these candidates have no chance of winning, just that they aren't in the front of the pack and that, as of now, I don't see them competing seriously in 2012. However, anything can happen in the world of politics. 

Jeb Bush- Surely Republicans won't elect another Bush, right? Maybe not. It's likely without his brother being extremely unpopular he would be the frontrunner. He's smart and very popular in his home state of Florida. Not to mention a candidate essentially being guaranteed Florida would be very hard to beat. So far, "Dubya's" little brother has performed abysmal in the polls. As in under 5%. That being said, don't be surprised at all if those numbers take a steep incline as we climb closer to 2012. However, I think his brother's tarnished name will be too much to overcome. Though his electoral math will look better than his nationwide polling, he won't have enough support to make a serious run at the office. Although don't be surprised if a more serious run comes in 2016. Chances of winning: 3%

Charlie Crist- Another Republican from Florida, he's becoming a champion of bi-partisanism. He is very popular among moderates and again, from a great state for being elected. Although I think he could have a nice following, I'd be surprised if his numbers ever reached double digits. Not to mention, he still has to overcome the conservative Marco Rubio for the Florida Senate seat, which some polls have Rubio neck and neck. If he does beat Rubio, he might have enough support to get into the debate of GOP 2012 Candidates. If not, game over. Chances of winning: 5%

Bobby Jindal- Although relatively unknown now, he could be a household name by 2012. If an unknown were to come out and win, I think Jindal is it. He's popular among conservatives and has appeal to moderates. I wouldn't be surprised if he finishes above Sarah Palin. (in fact, I might be surprised if he doesn't). Right now, Jindal's biggest problem is his recognition. If he can get his name out, he could be a force. Chances of Winning: 10%

Sarah Palin- After much debate, I decided to put Palin below Pawlenty and Gingrich. Although I've always liked her appeal and her fair-mindedness, she is as unpopular as she is popular. Almost everyone has made their minds up about her, and it's more bad than good. She was very popular among Conservatives, but that took a shot with her new "bi-partisan kick" and her promise to campaign for democrats. She's a very interesting political figure, but will not be strong enough to compete in 2012. Chances of Winning: 14%

Polls, Polls, Polls

1. - Real Clear Politics has a new poll that places Mike in a dead heat with Romney. Here's the link, but this is essentially the entire article anyway: 
   

Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee have swapped spots on top of Fox News' latest test of the 2012 Republican presidential field.

2012 Primary Election Matchup
Romney 22 (+4 from May)
Huckabee 21 (+1)
Palin 17 (+4)
Giuliani 13 (+1)
Gingrich 9 (-5)
Jindal 3 (unch)
J. Bush 1 (-2)
Pawlenty 1 
Sanford -- (-4)

Ten percent said it was too soon to decide, while 2 percent were undecided.

The poll asked voters what would be the best job for Sarah Palin now that she's resigned. Among all voters, the top choice (32 percent) was homemaker; 17 percent said she should be a talk show host, 14 percent said vice president, while just 6 percent said president. Among Republican voters VP was the top choice at 27 percent, followed by homemaker (18 percent), talk show host (14 percent) and then president (12 percent).

The generic 2010 ballot test shows Democrats still ahead, though their numbers have slipped. If the election were held today, 43 percent would vote for a Democratic candidate, while 38 percent would pick the Republican -- a 5 point gap, down from a 12 point advantage in May. Congress' job approval rating has dropped 11 points to 30 percent, while 60 percent disapprove. The split was 41/49 in May.

The telephone survey was conducted July 21-22, with an overall sample of 900 registered voters and a +/- 3 percent margin of error. The Republican primary sample of 303 voters had a margin of error of +/- 6 percent.

After the jump, see some Fav/Unfav ratings for government figures.

Favorable Ratings
Obama 62 / 33
Democratic Party 50 / 41
Republican Party 36 / 53
Sotomayor 41 / 24
Pelosi 29 / 47
Palin 38 / 51

So there you have it, from Real Clear Politics. It just solidifies the fact that this could quickly turn into a 2-dog race. It feels as if two incumbents are running with Jindal, Pawlenty, Gingrich and the others just nipping at their heels. I think this is good news for Mike, as it should be easy to tear apart Mitt's record. 

-"Blue Dogs" vote pivotal in Health Care Reform.

-I wonder, with Mike being better known this time around, if he'll receive any big(ger) endorsements. Of course, he had Chuck Norris last time. I wonder who he'll get this time? How awesome would it be to get Rick Warren? 

-Last, I don't agree with everything that comes out of Mike's mouth. I support him because he is the type of man who can lead us through great and tough times. He reminds me of Ronald Reagan, which is why I long for 2012 to reach. Leave me a comment to why you support Mike. 

Sotomayor confirmed by committee. I stand by my previous post: don't fight this. There are other fights worth fighting but not this.

The important thing? Another example that President Obama is far from "bi-partisan". All but one yay vote (Lindsey Graham, SC) was from a democrat.

Sotomayor, The Huck Man and Funny People

-As I'm writing this, the honorable Judge Sonia Sotomayor is in the process of being confirmed. It should go down without a fight. As a conservative, I will note that I, for one, will choose not to care about this today. Sotomayor, as controversial as she's been, is a very qualified Judge who I believe will be fair. We have to pick our fights, and this is not one of them. She's going to be confirmed anyway, so why fight it? Especially with the growing population of hispanics that are beginning to make up a decent chunk of the electorate.  Let's use our resources to fight deficit spending and healthcare reform, not this. 

-The Huck Man (my new nickname for Mike Huckabee....because, you know, we're practically best friends. I mean, I shook his hand at a book-signing) is still "flying under the radar", apparently. This, for reasons I can't even fathom. What else can the man too? He's been the most popular candidate in the polls (Fox, CNN, Washington Post, etc.) by FAR. He's also been leading or one point off the top in every poll I've seen including many other GOP Internet polls. Yet for some reason, he slips pollsters minds while they are polling for Mitt and Palin. (They might as well test Jeb Bush and Ron Paul as well. Let's just forget the frontrunner, eh?)

-As I was watching Al Franken deliver his Sotomayor love letter in the hearings today, I just thought, "What is he doing in public office?" He looks, and acts, like he should be in the cast of "Funny People", not in the US Congress. But there he sits. 

-Halfway through Glenn Beck's "Common Sense". Beck is very cynical and a little loud (much like his show), but brings up some excellent points. One thing you find out about Glenn very fast is, although he is a big-conservative, he's not a big-republican. He equally hates all politicians. Although his book, thus far, is at times cynical and pessimistic, it should be read by all Americans, regardless of political affiliation. I think democrats would be surprised to hear that Bush takes more shots than Obama in this book. 

-BREAKING NEWS: OFFICIALS TO OBTAIN SEARCH WARRANT FOR JACKSON'S DOCTOR'S HOUSE. 

BREAKING NEWS: JACKSON'S DOCTOR GOES OUT TO LUNCH.

Is anyone else tired of the day-to-day soap opera that unfolds on every major news network, highlighting Michael Jackson's death? Ok, he died. It's sad, and I expect it to be reported. His funeral is a big deal, and I don't mind hearing about that. It's a homicide? Ok, interesting. But do I really want a line-by-line reading of his will or a daily account of his doctors? NO! It's getting out of hand. GET IT TOGETHER, PEOPLE!! There are still important events happening, like, gee....I don't know, the confirmation of a Judge to the Bench! Or how about America's gradual path to SOCIALISM! Pull yourselves together. 

-Michael Vick is back to the NFL. Sad story....

-Can we (and by We, I mean the people) STOP asking to see President Obama's birth certificate? Nobody likes a sore loser. The man's American. And guess what? HE'S CHRISTIAN!! Because he has dark skin and a funny name we now can't believe he's an American? We can do better than that. 

Huckamania

After a short layoff, I've decided to continue blogging. Except I'll be changing my format. Hope you enjoy, and please leave comments!

-Mike Huckabee substituted for Bill O' Reilly on Friday on the "O' Reilly Factor." Apparently, the folks over at "the Factor" must have thought Mike did well enough the first time to ask him on again. Maybe Mike will become Bill's stand-in? Either way, the "Huckabee Factor" cleaned up shop outperforming all other major news stations at that time. (Mike should be used to that)

-Mike wins a poll for te 2012 Republican Nomination....AGAIN!! Except this time, he beat Romney by a cool 5 points, outside the margin. He was also able to defeat Palin even worse. This all from the Washington Post. He also won in the favorables, where he was again most popular among GOP candidates and polling better than Obama. Yet despite all this, Raumussen Polls continue to leave him out of their polling for 2012, for reasons beyond any understanding. For this reason, they are now on my new list, the "Axis of Evil", which also includes Rahm Emmanuel, Barney Frank and that Paris idiot who bashed Carrie Prejean. (while I'm on that subject, Carrie, will you marry me?)

-In other news, I hope to bring you more of an "inside scoop" in the upcoming years. I'm doing my best to work for a 2010 race (Matt Lockett in Kentucky 6th) a and a 2012 race (Mike Huckabee). If so, I will keep everyone updated on day-to-day events. We'll see!